‘Experts Predict an Increased Chance of an Above Normal Hurricane Season for the Rest of the Year’ — Sure looks like the experts were wrong!
We started out the hurricane season long before June 1, when Tropical Storm Alberto hit the Atlantic Coast on May 19. The experts back then still indicated that it would be a below normal hurricane even though early storms of that magnitude are an excellent indicator of greater activity.
The storm predictors from Colorado State University as well as the team from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center told us that The El Niño factor would not have any influence on the season.
And true to form we had a total of two named storms off the Atlantic Coast prior to June 1. While mild in nature, it was highly unusual to have two named storms so early in the season.
Our friends at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center have now revised their outlook and now predict an above normal season of storms although late in the hurricane season.
“We are increasing the likelihood of an above normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic”, said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.
“These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic Hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”
Although the announcement included a lot of mumbo-jumbo, the experts are now saying that we should not let our guard down! Hurricanes bring dangerous inland flooding and wind damage as we saw last year with hurricane Irene.
If you are contemplating the purchase of flood insurance, we remind you that there is a 30-day waiting period if you are looking to purchase the insurance other than for a real estate closing. We all need to hope for the best but prepare for the worst!