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Politics & Government

Forecasters Urge Caution As Irene's Effects Remain Uncertain

New Jersey is in the 5-day cone of uncertainty for the season's first hurricane

“It looks like it will affect us one way or another."

That is how the National Weather Service in Mount Holly is describing the potential impacts of Hurricane Irene on the Jersey Shore. Meteorologists are advising coastal residents to plan ahead for a nasty weekend.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, Irene was situated about 50 miles north-northwest of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic (or 70 miles south of the Grand Turk Island). The Category 2 hurricane's maximum recorded wind speed by a Hurricane Hunter plane was 100 mph.

The National Hurricane Center is currently predicting that the storm will make an initial landfall off the southern North Carolina coast by late Saturday night, but New Jersey is not out of the woods. In the updated forecast track at 11 a.m. Tuesday, New Jersey placed into the 5-day cone of uncertainty.

“It looks like New Jersey is going to be impacted in some way this weekend – particularly Sunday – by the storm, but this far out the exact forecast track can be off by 200 to 300 miles. Of course, that will make a huge difference in how we're affected,” Meteorologist Bob Wanton of the Mount Holly National Weather Service told Patch Tuesday morning.

Irene is expected to intensify throughout the day on Tuesday. She is forecasted to reach the strength of a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) later today.

“Irene is growing in strength. Once Irene gets passed the influences of the island if Hispanola, Irene is going to intensify rapidly,” NyNJPAweather.com Meteorologist Steven DiMartino noted on his video forecast early Tuesday.

The storm's exact track remains up in the air.

“It looks like the storm should clip the Carolina coast, and then how it affects our area remains uncertain. The storm could come right over us, or go off to the Northeast and remain over the Atlantic waters. Either way, it's a serious situation,” Meteorologist Bob Wanton warns.

A look at a 'spaghetti drawing' of current weather forecast models around mid-day Tuesday showed a variety of solutions for the system's exact track by Sunday. However, most models have the storm within 100 miles of that Atlantic City coast by midday Sunday.

“When the storm gets here, we could be dealing with a storm that has the strength of anything from a tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane. The storm could dump anywhere from 2 to 10 inches of rain regardless depending on how it interacts with land,” Meteorologist Steven DiMartino said.

Wanton warned the storm could also pose large problems for coastal communities.

“We have a new moon, and that could cause some real coastal flooding problems along the coast, depending on how the storm tracks in here,” Wanton said. “It's been an extremely wet August. There's just so much water that anything would cause problems let alone this much tropical moisture."

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In the mean time, officials urge residents to keep an eye on the forecast. And there is no time like the present to be prepared. Over the weekend, that residents should always review their hurricane preparedness materials in August.

Later today, Patch will speak with the Ocean County Office of Emergency Management to see how the county is preparing for Irene.

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